Celta Vigo
1-1
Málaga
Celta Vigo – Málaga
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.27 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Málaga. The model predicted a win for Celta Vigo (38 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.27 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.09 for Málaga. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 57 %. Over their last five matches, Celta Vigo took 3 points and Málaga 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Celta Vigo | 1.68 | 57 % | -36.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 26 % | +9.8 % |
| 2Málaga | 5.50 | 17 % | +79.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Celta Vigo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Málaga
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Celta Vigo – Málaga?
Final score: Celta Vigo 1-1 Málaga. The model predicted a win for Celta Vigo (38 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Celta Vigo – Málaga?
Our model gives 1 · Celta Vigo a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Celta Vigo win 38 %, draw 30 %, Málaga win 33 %.