Kashima Antlers
Cerezo Osaka
Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 06:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 62 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.96 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Kashima Antlers at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.96 goals for Kashima Antlers and 0.99 for Cerezo Osaka. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 55 %. Over their last five matches, Kashima Antlers took 10 points and Cerezo Osaka 4 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Kashima Antlers, 1 draw, 1 win for Cerezo Osaka. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kashima Antlers | 1.71 | 55 % | +6.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.00 | 23 % | -17.0 % |
| 2Cerezo Osaka | 4.30 | 22 % | -27.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Kashima Antlers
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cerezo Osaka
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Kashima Antlers
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Cerezo Osaka
- Kashima Antlers3-1Cerezo Osaka
- Cerezo Osaka1-0Kashima Antlers
- Cerezo Osaka0-2Kashima Antlers
- Kashima Antlers1-1Cerezo Osaka
- Kashima Antlers1-0Cerezo Osaka
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka?
Our model gives 1 · Kashima Antlers a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Kashima Antlers win 62 %, draw 21 %, Cerezo Osaka win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Kashima Antlers – Cerezo Osaka?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.