Fagiano Okayama
FC Tokyo
Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 06:00 PM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.10 – 1.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards FC Tokyo away from home (50 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.10 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 1.65 for FC Tokyo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fagiano Okayama took 3 points and FC Tokyo 13 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Fagiano Okayama, 0 draws, 1 win for FC Tokyo. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fagiano Okayama | 3.70 | 25 % | -12.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -6.6 % |
| 2FC Tokyo | 1.95 | 48 % | -3.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fagiano Okayama
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Tokyo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Fagiano Okayama
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- FC Tokyo
- FC Tokyo3-1Fagiano Okayama
- Fagiano Okayama1-0FC Tokyo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo?
Our model gives 2 · FC Tokyo a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fagiano Okayama win 24 %, draw 27 %, FC Tokyo win 50 %.
What is the most likely score for Fagiano Okayama – FC Tokyo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.