Sarmiento (Junín)
Rosario Central
Sarmiento (Junín) – Rosario Central
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.96 – 1.53
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Rosario Central away from home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.96 goals for Sarmiento (Junín) and 1.53 for Rosario Central. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sarmiento (Junín) took 5 points and Rosario Central 13 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sarmiento (Junín), 0 draws, 4 wins for Rosario Central. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sarmiento (Junín) | 3.85 | 24 % | -10.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -8.9 % |
| 2Rosario Central | 1.95 | 48 % | -4.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sarmiento (Junín)
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rosario Central
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sarmiento (Junín)
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- Rosario Central
- Rosario Central2-1Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)0-1Rosario Central
- Rosario Central1-0Sarmiento (Junín)
- Rosario Central4-2Sarmiento (Junín)
- Sarmiento (Junín)4-1Rosario Central
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sarmiento (Junín) – Rosario Central?
Our model gives 2 · Rosario Central a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sarmiento (Junín) win 23 %, draw 28 %, Rosario Central win 49 %.
What is the most likely score for Sarmiento (Junín) – Rosario Central?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.