Corinthians
Mirassol
Corinthians – Mirassol
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.31 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Corinthians at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.31 goals for Corinthians and 1.17 for Mirassol. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 53 %. Over their last five matches, Corinthians took 1 point and Mirassol 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Corinthians, 0 draws, 2 wins for Mirassol. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Corinthians | 1.76 | 53 % | -27.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | +5.0 % |
| 2Mirassol | 4.40 | 21 % | +28.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Corinthians
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mirassol
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Corinthians
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Mirassol
- Mirassol2-1Corinthians
- Corinthians3-0Mirassol
- Mirassol2-1Corinthians
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Corinthians – Mirassol?
Our model gives 1 · Corinthians a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Corinthians win 41 %, draw 30 %, Mirassol win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Corinthians – Mirassol?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.