Criciúma
Ponte Preta
Criciúma – Ponte Preta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 81 %
- Most likely score
- 2-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.39 – 0.54
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 38 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Criciúma at home (81 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.39 goals for Criciúma and 0.54 for Ponte Preta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 88 %. Over their last five matches, Criciúma took 9 points and Ponte Preta 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Criciúma, 3 draws, 0 wins for Ponte Preta. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 38 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Criciúma | 1.05 | 88 % | -14.8 % |
| XDraw | 11.00 | 8 % | +47.8 % |
| 2Ponte Preta | 23.00 | 4 % | +23.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Criciúma
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ponte Preta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Criciúma
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Ponte Preta
- Ponte Preta1-2Criciúma
- Ponte Preta1-2Criciúma
- Ponte Preta1-1Criciúma
- Criciúma1-1Ponte Preta
- Criciúma0-0Ponte Preta
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Criciúma – Ponte Preta?
Our model gives 1 · Criciúma a 81 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Criciúma win 81 %, draw 13 %, Ponte Preta win 5 %.
What is the most likely score for Criciúma – Ponte Preta?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.