Casa Pia
Sporting CP
Casa Pia – Sporting CP
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 0-212 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.76 – 2.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 48 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sporting CP away from home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.76 goals for Casa Pia and 2.31 for Sporting CP. Bookmakers say the same thing: 74 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Casa Pia took 9 points and Sporting CP 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Casa Pia, 0 draws, 5 wins for Sporting CP. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Casa Pia | 9.75 | 10 % | -6.8 % |
| XDraw | 5.63 | 17 % | -4.2 % |
| 2Sporting CP | 1.25 | 74 % | -7.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Casa Pia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sporting CP
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Casa Pia
- 0 draws
- 5 wins
- Sporting CP
- Sporting CP3-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-2Sporting CP
- Casa Pia1-3Sporting CP
- Sporting CP2-0Casa Pia
- Sporting CP8-0Casa Pia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Casa Pia – Sporting CP?
Our model gives 2 · Sporting CP a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Casa Pia win 10 %, draw 17 %, Sporting CP win 73 %.
What is the most likely score for Casa Pia – Sporting CP?
The most likely score is 0-2, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.