Lille
Lens
Lille – Lens
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Lens away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.29 goals for Lille and 1.45 for Lens. Bookmakers say the same thing: 35 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lille took 5 points and Lens 9 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Lille, 0 draws, 1 win for Lens. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lille | 2.48 | 38 % | -19.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.58 | 26 % | -3.0 % |
| 2Lens | 2.67 | 35 % | +7.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lille
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lens
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Lille
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Lens
- Lille3-0Lens
- Lens3-0Lille
- Lille1-0Lens
- Lens0-2Lille
- Lille2-1Lens
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Lille – Lens?
Our model gives 2 · Lens a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lille win 33 %, draw 27 %, Lens win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for Lille – Lens?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.