Villarreal
Espanyol
Villarreal – Espanyol
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 70 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.35 – 0.87
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Villarreal at home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.35 goals for Villarreal and 0.87 for Espanyol. Bookmakers say the same thing: 67 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Villarreal took 10 points and Espanyol 1 point. In recent meetings: 5 wins for Villarreal, 0 draws, 0 wins for Espanyol. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Villarreal | 1.41 | 67 % | -0.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | -9.2 % |
| 2Espanyol | 7.00 | 14 % | -20.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Villarreal
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Espanyol
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 5 wins
- Villarreal
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Espanyol
- Villarreal4-1Espanyol
- Espanyol0-2Villarreal
- Villarreal1-0Espanyol
- Espanyol1-2Villarreal
- Villarreal4-2Espanyol
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Villarreal – Espanyol?
Our model gives 1 · Villarreal a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Villarreal win 70 %, draw 18 %, Espanyol win 11 %.
What is the most likely score for Villarreal – Espanyol?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.