SV Elversberg
Mainz
SV Elversberg – Mainz
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.52 – 1.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65 %
- Both teams to score
- 66 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mainz away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.52 goals for SV Elversberg and 1.82 for Mainz. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, SV Elversberg took 4 points and Mainz 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for SV Elversberg, 1 draw, 1 win for Mainz. Over 2.5 goals: 65 %. Both teams to score: 66 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1SV Elversberg | 3.13 | 30 % | -4.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.73 | 25 % | -1.8 % |
| 2Mainz | 2.05 | 45 % | -11.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
SV Elversberg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Mainz
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- SV Elversberg
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Mainz
- SV Elversberg0-1Mainz
- SV Elversberg2-2Mainz
Frequently asked questions
Who will win SV Elversberg – Mainz?
Our model gives 2 · Mainz a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: SV Elversberg win 30 %, draw 26 %, Mainz win 43 %.
What is the most likely score for SV Elversberg – Mainz?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.