Metz
Pau
Metz – Pau
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Metz at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for Metz and 1.10 for Pau. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Metz took 5 points and Pau 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Metz, 2 draws, 1 win for Pau. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Metz | 2.00 | 47 % | -2.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.70 | 25 % | -4.1 % |
| 2Pau | 3.30 | 28 % | -16.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Metz
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Pau
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Metz
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Pau
- Pau2-1Metz
- Metz0-0Pau
- Pau1-1Metz
- Metz1-0Pau
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Metz – Pau?
Our model gives 1 · Metz a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Metz win 49 %, draw 26 %, Pau win 25 %.
What is the most likely score for Metz – Pau?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.