Grazer AK
TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK – TSV Hartberg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 1.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Grazer AK at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Grazer AK and 1.25 for TSV Hartberg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Grazer AK took 6 points and TSV Hartberg 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Grazer AK, 2 draws, 3 wins for TSV Hartberg. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Grazer AK | 2.15 | 43 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -7.5 % |
| 2TSV Hartberg | 3.25 | 29 % | +12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Grazer AK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
TSV Hartberg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Grazer AK
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- TSV Hartberg
- TSV Hartberg1-0Grazer AK
- Grazer AK0-0TSV Hartberg
- TSV Hartberg1-1Grazer AK
- Grazer AK0-3TSV Hartberg
- Grazer AK0-3TSV Hartberg
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Grazer AK – TSV Hartberg?
Our model gives 1 · Grazer AK a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Grazer AK win 38 %, draw 28 %, TSV Hartberg win 35 %.
What is the most likely score for Grazer AK – TSV Hartberg?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.