Al Shabab
Al Ahli
Al Shabab – Al Ahli
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 29, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.25 – 2.05
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Ahli away from home (57 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.25 goals for Al Shabab and 2.05 for Al Ahli. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Al Shabab took 8 points and Al Ahli 15 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Al Shabab, 1 draw, 3 wins for Al Ahli. Over 2.5 goals: 64 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Shabab | 3.10 | 30 % | -36.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | -15.5 % |
| 2Al Ahli | 2.05 | 45 % | +17.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Al Shabab
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Ahli
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Al Shabab
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Al Ahli
- Al Shabab2-5Al Ahli
- Al Ahli1-1Al Shabab
- Al Shabab3-1Al Ahli
- Al Ahli3-2Al Shabab
- Al Shabab1-2Al Ahli
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Shabab – Al Ahli?
Our model gives 2 · Al Ahli a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Shabab win 21 %, draw 22 %, Al Ahli win 57 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Shabab – Al Ahli?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.