1. FC Heidenheim 1846
01:30 PM
Sep 13
Holstein Kiel
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 – Holstein Kiel
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.76 – 1.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 at home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.76 goals for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 and 1.25 for Holstein Kiel. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 took 9 points and Holstein Kiel 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846, 0 draws, 1 win for Holstein Kiel. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 2.10 | 44 % | -3.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 26 % | -6.8 % |
| 2Holstein Kiel | 3.10 | 30 % | -12.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Holstein Kiel
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | Form and statistics | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| 1471 | Elo | 1479 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.30 |
| 15.3 | Shots / match | 12.8 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Holstein Kiel
- 1. FC Heidenheim 18463-1Holstein Kiel
- Holstein Kiel1-01. FC Heidenheim 1846
Frequently asked questions
Who will win 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 – Holstein Kiel?
Our model gives 1 · 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win 46 %, draw 26 %, Holstein Kiel win 28 %.
What is the most likely score for 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 – Holstein Kiel?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
