Vasco da Gama
Flamengo
Vasco da Gama – Flamengo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 0-111 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.11 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo away from home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.11 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.41 for Flamengo. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 52 %. Over their last five matches, Vasco da Gama took 7 points and Flamengo 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Vasco da Gama, 4 draws, 1 win for Flamengo. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Vasco da Gama | 3.90 | 24 % | +1.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | +12.9 % |
| 2Flamengo | 1.80 | 52 % | -18.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Vasco da Gama
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Vasco da Gama
- 4 draws
- 1 win
- Flamengo
- Flamengo2-2Vasco da Gama
- Flamengo1-1Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama0-0Flamengo
- Flamengo1-1Vasco da Gama
- Vasco da Gama1-6Flamengo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Vasco da Gama – Flamengo?
Our model gives 2 · Flamengo a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Vasco da Gama win 26 %, draw 29 %, Flamengo win 45 %.
What is the most likely score for Vasco da Gama – Flamengo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.