Atlético-MG
Cruzeiro
Atlético-MG – Cruzeiro
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.23
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atlético-MG at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.48 goals for Atlético-MG and 1.23 for Cruzeiro. Bookmakers say the same thing: 39 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Atlético-MG took 9 points and Cruzeiro 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Atlético-MG, 3 draws, 0 wins for Cruzeiro. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Atlético-MG | 2.40 | 39 % | +0.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | -5.1 % |
| 2Cruzeiro | 2.75 | 34 % | -15.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cruzeiro
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Atlético-MG
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro1-3Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG1-1Cruzeiro
- Cruzeiro0-0Atlético-MG
- Cruzeiro0-0Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG3-0Cruzeiro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Atlético-MG – Cruzeiro?
Our model gives 1 · Atlético-MG a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Atlético-MG win 42 %, draw 28 %, Cruzeiro win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Atlético-MG – Cruzeiro?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.