América
Tijuana
América – Tijuana
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 62 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.19 – 1.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards América at home (62 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.19 goals for América and 1.08 for Tijuana. Bookmakers say the same thing: 65 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, América took 10 points and Tijuana 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for América, 4 draws, 0 wins for Tijuana. Over 2.5 goals: 63 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América | 1.43 | 65 % | -11.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.90 | 19 % | +6.4 % |
| 2Tijuana | 6.00 | 16 % | -0.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
América
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Tijuana
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- América
- 4 draws
- 0 wins
- Tijuana
- Tijuana0-0América
- América3-1Tijuana
- América1-1Tijuana
- Tijuana2-2América
- Tijuana2-2América
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América – Tijuana?
Our model gives 1 · América a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América win 62 %, draw 22 %, Tijuana win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for América – Tijuana?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.