Predictions are closed for this match.
Excelsior
12:15 PM
Sep 13
FC Utrecht
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Excelsior | 2.17 | 43 % | -5.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +1.4 % |
| 2FC Utrecht | 2.91 | 32 % | -12.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Excelsior
FC Utrecht
| Excelsior | Form and statistics | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| 1523 | Elo | 1579 |
| 2.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 2.20 |
| 14.1 | Shots / match | 15.3 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Excelsior a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Excelsior win 43 %, draw 27 %, FC Utrecht win 30 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 59 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.17 for Excelsior, 3.80 for the draw, 2.91 for FC Utrecht.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 13, 2026 at 12:15 PM (Eredivisie), at Stadion Woudestein.
The model leans towards Excelsior at home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.64 goals for Excelsior and 1.32 for FC Utrecht. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Excelsior took 10 points and FC Utrecht 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Excelsior, 2 draws, 1 win for FC Utrecht. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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