Excelsior
1-2
FC Utrecht
Excelsior – FC Utrecht
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:45 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Excelsior 1-2 FC Utrecht. The model predicted a win for Excelsior (43 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.64 goals for Excelsior and 1.32 for FC Utrecht. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Excelsior took 10 points and FC Utrecht 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Excelsior, 2 draws, 1 win for FC Utrecht. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Excelsior | 2.17 | 43 % | -5.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.80 | 25 % | +1.4 % |
| 2FC Utrecht | 2.91 | 32 % | -12.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Excelsior
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Utrecht
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Excelsior
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- FC Utrecht
- Excelsior5-0FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht4-1Excelsior
- Excelsior1-1FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht2-2Excelsior
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Excelsior – FC Utrecht?
Final score: Excelsior 1-2 FC Utrecht. The model predicted a win for Excelsior (43 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Excelsior – FC Utrecht?
Our model gives 1 · Excelsior a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Excelsior win 43 %, draw 27 %, FC Utrecht win 30 %.