Everton
Newcastle United
Everton – Newcastle United
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.16
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Everton at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.50 goals for Everton and 1.16 for Newcastle United. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Everton took 7 points and Newcastle United 6 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Everton, 2 draws, 1 win for Newcastle United. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Everton | 2.15 | 43 % | -6.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -13.3 % |
| 2Newcastle United | 3.10 | 30 % | -4.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Everton
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Newcastle United
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Everton
- 2 draws
- 1 win
- Newcastle United
- Newcastle United2-3Everton
- Everton1-4Newcastle United
- Newcastle United0-1Everton
- Everton0-0Newcastle United
- Newcastle United1-1Everton
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Everton – Newcastle United?
Our model gives 1 · Everton a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Everton win 44 %, draw 26 %, Newcastle United win 31 %.
What is the most likely score for Everton – Newcastle United?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.