Fiorentina
Atalanta
Fiorentina – Atalanta
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.36 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Atalanta away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.36 goals for Fiorentina and 1.41 for Atalanta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 31 %. Over their last five matches, Fiorentina took 4 points and Atalanta 7 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Fiorentina, 1 draw, 2 wins for Atalanta. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fiorentina | 2.17 | 43 % | -25.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.58 | 26 % | -1.0 % |
| 2Atalanta | 3.02 | 31 % | +14.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fiorentina
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atalanta
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Fiorentina
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Atalanta
- Fiorentina1-1Atalanta
- Atalanta2-0Fiorentina
- Fiorentina1-0Atalanta
- Atalanta3-2Fiorentina
- Atalanta2-3Fiorentina
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fiorentina – Atalanta?
Our model gives 2 · Atalanta a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fiorentina win 34 %, draw 28 %, Atalanta win 38 %.
What is the most likely score for Fiorentina – Atalanta?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.