Al Nassr
Al Kholood
Al Nassr – Al Kholood
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 82 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.99 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 73 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Al Nassr at home (82 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.99 goals for Al Nassr and 0.83 for Al Kholood. Bookmakers say the same thing: 77 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Al Nassr took 12 points and Al Kholood 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Al Nassr, 1 draw, 0 wins for Al Kholood. Over 2.5 goals: 73 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Al Nassr | 1.20 | 77 % | -1.5 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | -16.3 % |
| 2Al Kholood | 10.00 | 9 % | -40.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Al Nassr
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Al Kholood
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Al Nassr
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Al Kholood
- Al Kholood0-3Al Nassr
- Al Nassr2-0Al Kholood
- Al Nassr3-1Al Kholood
- Al Kholood3-3Al Nassr
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Al Nassr – Al Kholood?
Our model gives 1 · Al Nassr a 82 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Al Nassr win 82 %, draw 12 %, Al Kholood win 6 %.
What is the most likely score for Al Nassr – Al Kholood?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.