Hammarby IF
IK Sirius
Hammarby IF – IK Sirius
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.03 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Hammarby IF at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.03 goals for Hammarby IF and 1.03 for IK Sirius. Bookmakers say the same thing: 63 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Hammarby IF took 12 points and IK Sirius 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Hammarby IF, 0 draws, 2 wins for IK Sirius. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Hammarby IF | 1.50 | 63 % | -12.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.60 | 20 % | +3.4 % |
| 2IK Sirius | 5.50 | 17 % | +6.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Hammarby IF
- Last 5 matches
- At home
IK Sirius
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Hammarby IF
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- IK Sirius
- IK Sirius2-0Hammarby IF
- IK Sirius3-1Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF3-2IK Sirius
- IK Sirius0-3Hammarby IF
- Hammarby IF3-0IK Sirius
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Hammarby IF – IK Sirius?
Our model gives 1 · Hammarby IF a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Hammarby IF win 58 %, draw 22 %, IK Sirius win 19 %.
What is the most likely score for Hammarby IF – IK Sirius?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.