Real Madrid
09:00 PM
Sep 12
Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.28 – 0.88
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Real Madrid at home (71 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.28 goals for Real Madrid and 0.88 for Rayo Vallecano. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 84 %. Over their last five matches, Real Madrid took 12 points and Rayo Vallecano 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Real Madrid, 3 draws, 0 wins for Rayo Vallecano. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Madrid | 1.14 | 84 % | -18.6 % |
| XDraw | 9.00 | 11 % | +50.3 % |
| 2Rayo Vallecano | 18.00 | 5 % | +113.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Real Madrid
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Rayo Vallecano
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Real Madrid | Form and statistics | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| 1875 | Elo | 1669 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 16.4 | Shots / match | 12.7 |
| 80 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Real Madrid
- 3 draws
- 0 wins
- Rayo Vallecano
- Real Madrid2-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano0-0Real Madrid
- Real Madrid2-1Rayo Vallecano
- Rayo Vallecano3-3Real Madrid
- Rayo Vallecano1-1Real Madrid
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
Our model gives 1 · Real Madrid a 71 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Madrid win 71 %, draw 17 %, Rayo Vallecano win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
