Union St.-Gilloise
08:45 PM
Sep 12
Lommel SK
Union St.-Gilloise – Lommel SK
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.37 – 0.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Union St.-Gilloise at home (78 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.37 goals for Union St.-Gilloise and 0.71 for Lommel SK. Bookmakers say the same thing: 75 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Union St.-Gilloise took 10 points and Lommel SK 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Union St.-Gilloise | 1.25 | 75 % | -2.8 % |
| XDraw | 6.00 | 16 % | -7.7 % |
| 2Lommel SK | 10.00 | 9 % | -31.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Union St.-Gilloise
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lommel SK
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Union St.-Gilloise | Form and statistics | Lommel SK |
|---|---|---|
| 1779 | Elo | 1516 |
| 2.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.60 |
| 15.0 | Shots / match | 10.2 |
| 50 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Union St.-Gilloise – Lommel SK?
Our model gives 1 · Union St.-Gilloise a 78 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Union St.-Gilloise win 78 %, draw 15 %, Lommel SK win 7 %.
What is the most likely score for Union St.-Gilloise – Lommel SK?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
