Bahia
São Paulo
Bahia – São Paulo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 48 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.43 – 1.04
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45 %
- Both teams to score
- 50 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Bahia at home (48 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.43 goals for Bahia and 1.04 for São Paulo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 47 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bahia took 4 points and São Paulo 7 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Bahia, 1 draw, 3 wins for São Paulo. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bahia | 2.00 | 47 % | -3.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -1.9 % |
| 2São Paulo | 3.50 | 27 % | -16.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Bahia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
São Paulo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Bahia
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- São Paulo
- São Paulo2-2Bahia
- São Paulo2-0Bahia
- Bahia2-1São Paulo
- Bahia0-3São Paulo
- São Paulo3-1Bahia
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Bahia – São Paulo?
Our model gives 1 · Bahia a 48 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bahia win 48 %, draw 28 %, São Paulo win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Bahia – São Paulo?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.