Santos
Palmeiras
Santos – Palmeiras
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.32
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palmeiras away from home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for Santos and 1.32 for Palmeiras. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Santos took 10 points and Palmeiras 12 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Santos, 1 draw, 2 wins for Palmeiras. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Santos | 3.05 | 31 % | -5.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -0.6 % |
| 2Palmeiras | 2.25 | 42 % | -11.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Santos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palmeiras
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Santos
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Palmeiras
- Palmeiras1-1Santos
- Santos1-0Palmeiras
- Palmeiras2-0Santos
- Palmeiras1-2Santos
- Palmeiras1-0Santos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Santos – Palmeiras?
Our model gives 2 · Palmeiras a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Santos win 31 %, draw 30 %, Palmeiras win 39 %.
What is the most likely score for Santos – Palmeiras?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.