Predictions are closed for this match.
Paris FC
08:45 PM
Sep 12
Lyon
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris FC | 2.50 | 38 % | -1.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 27 % | -1.9 % |
| 2Lyon | 2.66 | 36 % | -12.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Paris FC
Lyon
| Paris FC | Form and statistics | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| 1664 | Elo | 1716 |
| 2.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 12.9 | Shots / match | 15.6 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 8 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Paris FC a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris FC win 40 %, draw 28 %, Lyon win 33 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 51 %, and both teams scoring at 55 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.50 for Paris FC, 3.55 for the draw, 2.66 for Lyon.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Ligue 1), at Stade Jean Bouin.
The model leans towards Paris FC at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.45 goals for Paris FC and 1.26 for Lyon. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Paris FC took 10 points and Lyon 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Paris FC, 2 draws, 0 wins for Lyon. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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