Red Bull Bragantino
Chapecoense
Red Bull Bragantino – Chapecoense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 06:00 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 65 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.11 – 0.80
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 49 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Red Bull Bragantino at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.11 goals for Red Bull Bragantino and 0.80 for Chapecoense. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, Red Bull Bragantino took 5 points and Chapecoense 4 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Red Bull Bragantino, 0 draws, 1 win for Chapecoense. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Red Bull Bragantino | 1.27 | 73 % | -17.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.75 | 16 % | +22.8 % |
| 2Chapecoense | 9.00 | 10 % | +20.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Red Bull Bragantino
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Chapecoense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Red Bull Bragantino
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Chapecoense
- Chapecoense1-2Red Bull Bragantino
- Red Bull Bragantino1-2Chapecoense
- Chapecoense0-3Red Bull Bragantino
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Red Bull Bragantino – Chapecoense?
Our model gives 1 · Red Bull Bragantino a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Red Bull Bragantino win 65 %, draw 21 %, Chapecoense win 13 %.
What is the most likely score for Red Bull Bragantino – Chapecoense?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.