Lorient
2-2
Toulouse
Lorient – Toulouse
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 43 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.48 – 1.14
The short version
Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse. The model predicted a win for Lorient (43 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.48 goals for Lorient and 1.14 for Toulouse. Bookmakers say the same thing: 41 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Lorient took 7 points and Toulouse 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Lorient, 2 draws, 2 wins for Toulouse. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lorient | 2.33 | 41 % | +0.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 29 % | -4.2 % |
| 2Toulouse | 3.10 | 31 % | -14.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lorient
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Toulouse
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Lorient
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Toulouse
- Toulouse1-0Lorient
- Lorient1-1Toulouse
- Lorient1-2Toulouse
- Toulouse1-1Lorient
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lorient – Toulouse?
Final score: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse. The model predicted a win for Lorient (43 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Lorient – Toulouse?
Our model gives 1 · Lorient a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lorient win 43 %, draw 29 %, Toulouse win 28 %.