St Johnstone
Motherwell
St Johnstone – Motherwell
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.47
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Motherwell away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for St Johnstone and 1.47 for Motherwell. Bookmakers say the same thing: 36 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, St Johnstone took 5 points and Motherwell no points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for St Johnstone, 0 draws, 3 wins for Motherwell. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St Johnstone | 2.48 | 38 % | -27.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +4.0 % |
| 2Motherwell | 2.61 | 36 % | +5.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
St Johnstone
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Motherwell
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- St Johnstone
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- Motherwell
- Motherwell3-2St Johnstone
- St Johnstone2-1Motherwell
- St Johnstone1-0Motherwell
- Motherwell2-1St Johnstone
- St Johnstone1-2Motherwell
Frequently asked questions
Who will win St Johnstone – Motherwell?
Our model gives 2 · Motherwell a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St Johnstone win 29 %, draw 30 %, Motherwell win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for St Johnstone – Motherwell?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.