Pisa
Palermo
Pisa – Palermo
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 36 %
- Most likely score
- 0-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.28 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Palermo away from home (36 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for Pisa and 1.41 for Palermo. Bookmakers say the same thing: 34 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Pisa took 8 points and Palermo 13 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Pisa, 1 draw, 1 win for Palermo. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Pisa | 2.55 | 36 % | -10.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.10 | 30 % | -9.6 % |
| 2Palermo | 2.75 | 34 % | -1.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Pisa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Palermo
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Pisa
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- Palermo
- Palermo1-2Pisa
- Pisa2-0Palermo
- Pisa4-3Palermo
- Palermo3-2Pisa
- Pisa1-1Palermo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Pisa – Palermo?
Our model gives 2 · Palermo a 36 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Pisa win 35 %, draw 29 %, Palermo win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Pisa – Palermo?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.