Parma
Udinese
Parma – Udinese
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 37 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 47 %
- Both teams to score
- 52 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Udinese away from home (37 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.22 goals for Parma and 1.34 for Udinese. Bookmakers say the same thing: 38 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Parma took 3 points and Udinese no points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Parma, 1 draw, 3 wins for Udinese. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Parma | 2.90 | 32 % | -6.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.13 | 30 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Udinese | 2.48 | 38 % | -8.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Parma
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Udinese
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Parma
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Udinese
- Udinese0-1Parma
- Parma0-2Udinese
- Udinese1-0Parma
- Parma2-3Udinese
- Parma2-2Udinese
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Parma – Udinese?
Our model gives 2 · Udinese a 37 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Parma win 32 %, draw 31 %, Udinese win 37 %.
What is the most likely score for Parma – Udinese?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.