AC Milan
Bologna
AC Milan – Bologna
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 27, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.59 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AC Milan at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.59 goals for AC Milan and 1.03 for Bologna. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, AC Milan took 10 points and Bologna 7 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AC Milan, 0 draws, 2 wins for Bologna. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AC Milan | 1.60 | 59 % | -20.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.83 | 24 % | +5.8 % |
| 2Bologna | 5.50 | 17 % | +25.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AC Milan
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bologna
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- AC Milan
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Bologna
- Bologna0-3AC Milan
- AC Milan1-0Bologna
- AC Milan0-1Bologna
- AC Milan3-1Bologna
- Bologna2-1AC Milan
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AC Milan – Bologna?
Our model gives 1 · AC Milan a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AC Milan win 49 %, draw 28 %, Bologna win 23 %.
What is the most likely score for AC Milan – Bologna?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.