St. Pauli
1-0
VfL Wolfsburg
St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 49 %
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.79
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg. The model predicted a win for VfL Wolfsburg (49 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.17 goals for St. Pauli and 1.79 for VfL Wolfsburg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, St. Pauli took 3 points and VfL Wolfsburg 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for St. Pauli, 2 draws, 2 wins for VfL Wolfsburg. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Pauli | 2.48 | 38 % | -40.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -1.8 % |
| 2VfL Wolfsburg | 2.60 | 36 % | +26.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
St. Pauli
- Last 5 matches
- At home
VfL Wolfsburg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- St. Pauli
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- VfL Wolfsburg
- St. Pauli1-3VfL Wolfsburg
- VfL Wolfsburg2-1St. Pauli
- VfL Wolfsburg1-1St. Pauli
- St. Pauli0-0VfL Wolfsburg
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg?
Final score: St. Pauli 1-0 VfL Wolfsburg. The model predicted a win for VfL Wolfsburg (49 %): missed prediction.
Who will win St. Pauli – VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model gives 2 · VfL Wolfsburg a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: St. Pauli win 24 %, draw 27 %, VfL Wolfsburg win 49 %.