Fortuna Sittard
08:00 PM
Sep 12
Ajax Amsterdam
Fortuna Sittard – Ajax Amsterdam
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-210 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.14 – 2.39
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69 %
- Both teams to score
- 62 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ajax Amsterdam away from home (64 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.14 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.39 for Ajax Amsterdam. Bookmakers say the same thing: 68 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Fortuna Sittard took 10 points and Ajax Amsterdam 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Fortuna Sittard, 1 draw, 4 wins for Ajax Amsterdam. Over 2.5 goals: 69 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fortuna Sittard | 6.50 | 14 % | -0.5 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | +6.6 % |
| 2Ajax Amsterdam | 1.39 | 68 % | -10.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Fortuna Sittard
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Ajax Amsterdam
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Fortuna Sittard | Form and statistics | Ajax Amsterdam |
|---|---|---|
| 1499 | Elo | 1694 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 3.10 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 10.4 | Shots / match | 22.5 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Fortuna Sittard
- 1 draw
- 4 wins
- Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam4-1Fortuna Sittard
- Fortuna Sittard1-3Ajax Amsterdam
- Fortuna Sittard0-2Ajax Amsterdam
- Ajax Amsterdam5-0Fortuna Sittard
- Ajax Amsterdam2-2Fortuna Sittard
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fortuna Sittard – Ajax Amsterdam?
Our model gives 2 · Ajax Amsterdam a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fortuna Sittard win 15 %, draw 20 %, Ajax Amsterdam win 64 %.
What is the most likely score for Fortuna Sittard – Ajax Amsterdam?
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
