Predictions are closed for this match.
Dunkerque
08:00 PM
Sep 12
Saint-Étienne
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dunkerque | 4.88 | 19 % | +44.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.98 | 23 % | +4.0 % |
| 2Saint-Étienne | 1.59 | 58 % | -29.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Dunkerque
Saint-Étienne
| Dunkerque | Form and statistics | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| 1468 | Elo | 1578 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 1.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 13.5 | Shots / match | 15.7 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Saint-Étienne a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Dunkerque win 30 %, draw 26 %, Saint-Étienne win 44 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 54 %, and both teams scoring at 57 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 4.88 for Dunkerque, 3.98 for the draw, 1.59 for Saint-Étienne.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 08:00 PM (Ligue 2), at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
The model leans towards Saint-Étienne away from home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.20 goals for Dunkerque and 1.63 for Saint-Étienne. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 58 %. Over their last five matches, Dunkerque took 5 points and Saint-Étienne 15 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Dunkerque, 0 draws, 2 wins for Saint-Étienne. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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