Ceará
Goiás
Ceará – Goiás
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 26, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 1.01
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Ceará at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.29 goals for Ceará and 1.01 for Goiás. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ceará took 8 points and Goiás 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Ceará, 3 draws, 2 wins for Goiás. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ceará | 2.05 | 45 % | -13.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -0.4 % |
| 2Goiás | 3.60 | 26 % | -1.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ceará
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Goiás
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Ceará
- 3 draws
- 2 wins
- Goiás
- Goiás2-0Ceará
- Goiás2-1Ceará
- Ceará1-1Goiás
- Ceará1-1Goiás
- Goiás1-1Ceará
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Ceará – Goiás?
Our model gives 1 · Ceará a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ceará win 42 %, draw 31 %, Goiás win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Ceará – Goiás?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.