Argentinos Juniors
Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinos Juniors – Independiente Rivadavia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 26, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 52 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.53 – 0.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Argentinos Juniors at home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.53 goals for Argentinos Juniors and 0.91 for Independiente Rivadavia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, Argentinos Juniors took 8 points and Independiente Rivadavia 8 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Argentinos Juniors, 1 draw, 3 wins for Independiente Rivadavia. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Argentinos Juniors | 2.05 | 46 % | +6.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -13.6 % |
| 2Independiente Rivadavia | 3.85 | 24 % | -21.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Argentinos Juniors
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Independiente Rivadavia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Argentinos Juniors
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia3-1Argentinos Juniors
- Independiente Rivadavia2-1Argentinos Juniors
- Argentinos Juniors0-0Independiente Rivadavia
- Independiente Rivadavia2-1Argentinos Juniors
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Argentinos Juniors – Independiente Rivadavia?
Our model gives 1 · Argentinos Juniors a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Argentinos Juniors win 52 %, draw 27 %, Independiente Rivadavia win 21 %.
What is the most likely score for Argentinos Juniors – Independiente Rivadavia?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.