Fleetwood Town
Arsenal
Fleetwood Town – Arsenal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 26, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 80 %
- Most likely score
- 0-313 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.51 – 3.24
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72 %
- Both teams to score
- 39 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Arsenal away from home (80 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-3. It expects 0.51 goals for Fleetwood Town and 3.24 for Arsenal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 87 %. Over their last five matches, Fleetwood Town took 10 points and Arsenal 13 points. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 39 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Fleetwood Town | 21.00 | 4 % | +32.9 % |
| XDraw | 10.50 | 9 % | +46.8 % |
| 2Arsenal | 1.07 | 87 % | -14.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Fleetwood Town
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Arsenal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Fleetwood Town – Arsenal?
Our model gives 2 · Arsenal a 80 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Fleetwood Town win 6 %, draw 14 %, Arsenal win 80 %.
What is the most likely score for Fleetwood Town – Arsenal?
The most likely score is 0-3, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.