Mantova
Cremonese
Mantova – Cremonese
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 26, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Mantova at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Mantova and 1.12 for Cremonese. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mantova took 10 points and Cremonese 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Mantova, 0 draws, 1 win for Cremonese. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mantova | 2.20 | 42 % | -11.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | +2.6 % |
| 2Cremonese | 3.15 | 30 % | -9.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mantova
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cremonese
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Mantova
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Cremonese
- Cremonese4-2Mantova
- Mantova1-0Cremonese
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Mantova – Cremonese?
Our model gives 1 · Mantova a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mantova win 40 %, draw 31 %, Cremonese win 29 %.
What is the most likely score for Mantova – Cremonese?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.