AIK
IF Elfsborg
AIK – IF Elfsborg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 26, 03:04 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.50 – 1.41
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56 %
- Both teams to score
- 59 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards AIK at home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.50 goals for AIK and 1.41 for IF Elfsborg. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 31 %. Over their last five matches, AIK took 5 points and IF Elfsborg 11 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for AIK, 1 draw, 1 win for IF Elfsborg. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 59 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1AIK | 3.00 | 31 % | +19.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.55 | 26 % | -8.8 % |
| 2IF Elfsborg | 2.20 | 43 % | -24.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
AIK
- Last 5 matches
- At home
IF Elfsborg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- AIK
- 1 draw
- 1 win
- IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg1-1AIK
- IF Elfsborg0-3AIK
- AIK2-0IF Elfsborg
- AIK2-1IF Elfsborg
- IF Elfsborg6-1AIK
Frequently asked questions
Who will win AIK – IF Elfsborg?
Our model gives 1 · AIK a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: AIK win 40 %, draw 26 %, IF Elfsborg win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for AIK – IF Elfsborg?
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.