Casa Pia
1-4
FC Porto
Casa Pia – FC Porto
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 0-213 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.71 – 2.21
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto. The model predicted a win for FC Porto (73 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.71 goals for Casa Pia and 2.21 for FC Porto. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 80 %. Over their last five matches, Casa Pia took 1 point and FC Porto 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Casa Pia, 0 draws, 4 wins for FC Porto. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Casa Pia | 13.00 | 7 % | +23.4 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +24.7 % |
| 2FC Porto | 1.17 | 80 % | -14.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Casa Pia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
FC Porto
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Casa Pia
- 0 draws
- 4 wins
- FC Porto
- Casa Pia2-1FC Porto
- FC Porto4-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia0-1FC Porto
- FC Porto2-0Casa Pia
- Casa Pia1-2FC Porto
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Casa Pia – FC Porto?
Final score: Casa Pia 1-4 FC Porto. The model predicted a win for FC Porto (73 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Casa Pia – FC Porto?
Our model gives 2 · FC Porto a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Casa Pia win 9 %, draw 18 %, FC Porto win 73 %.