Predictions are closed for this match.
Casa Pia
07:00 PM
Sep 12
FC Porto
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Casa Pia | 13.00 | 7 % | +23.4 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +24.7 % |
| 2FC Porto | 1.17 | 80 % | -14.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Casa Pia
FC Porto
| Casa Pia | Form and statistics | FC Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 1436 | Elo | 1825 |
| 0.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 9.5 | Shots / match | 13.8 |
| 10 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 22, 06:44 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · FC Porto a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Casa Pia win 9 %, draw 18 %, FC Porto win 73 %.
The most likely score is 0-2, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 56 %, and both teams scoring at 46 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 13.00 for Casa Pia, 7.00 for the draw, 1.17 for FC Porto.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (Primeira Liga), at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
The model leans towards FC Porto away from home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.71 goals for Casa Pia and 2.21 for FC Porto. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 80 %. Over their last five matches, Casa Pia took 1 point and FC Porto 12 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Casa Pia, 0 draws, 4 wins for FC Porto. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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