Instituto (Córdoba)
Deportivo Riestra
Instituto (Córdoba) – Deportivo Riestra
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-015 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 0.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43 %
- Both teams to score
- 43 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Instituto (Córdoba) at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.64 goals for Instituto (Córdoba) and 0.75 for Deportivo Riestra. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. Over their last five matches, Instituto (Córdoba) took 13 points and Deportivo Riestra 3 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Instituto (Córdoba), 0 draws, 1 win for Deportivo Riestra. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Instituto (Córdoba) | 1.90 | 49 % | +10.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 31 % | -20.1 % |
| 2Deportivo Riestra | 4.60 | 20 % | -27.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Instituto (Córdoba)
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Deportivo Riestra
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Instituto (Córdoba)
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Deportivo Riestra
- Deportivo Riestra0-1Instituto (Córdoba)
- Deportivo Riestra1-0Instituto (Córdoba)
- Instituto (Córdoba)3-0Deportivo Riestra
- Instituto (Córdoba)2-1Deportivo Riestra
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Instituto (Córdoba) – Deportivo Riestra?
Our model gives 1 · Instituto (Córdoba) a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Instituto (Córdoba) win 58 %, draw 26 %, Deportivo Riestra win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for Instituto (Córdoba) – Deportivo Riestra?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 15 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.