Juventude
Náutico
Juventude – Náutico
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.62 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44 %
- Both teams to score
- 46 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Juventude at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.62 goals for Juventude and 0.83 for Náutico. Bookmakers say the same thing: 62 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Juventude took 11 points and Náutico 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Juventude, 2 draws, 0 wins for Náutico. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Juventude | 1.50 | 62 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 4.10 | 23 % | +5.8 % |
| 2Náutico | 6.00 | 15 % | -0.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Juventude
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Náutico
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Juventude
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Náutico
- Náutico0-0Juventude
- Juventude1-0Náutico
- Náutico3-3Juventude
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Juventude – Náutico?
Our model gives 1 · Juventude a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Juventude win 58 %, draw 26 %, Náutico win 17 %.
What is the most likely score for Juventude – Náutico?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.