Flamengo
Atlético-MG
Flamengo – Atlético-MG
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 67 %
- Most likely score
- 2-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.00 – 0.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Flamengo at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.00 goals for Flamengo and 0.79 for Atlético-MG. Bookmakers say the same thing: 71 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Flamengo took 9 points and Atlético-MG 10 points. In recent meetings: 3 wins for Flamengo, 2 draws, 0 wins for Atlético-MG. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Flamengo | 1.31 | 71 % | -12.1 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | +8.1 % |
| 2Atlético-MG | 8.50 | 11 % | +4.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Flamengo
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Atlético-MG
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 3 wins
- Flamengo
- 2 draws
- 0 wins
- Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG0-4Flamengo
- Atlético-MG1-1Flamengo
- Flamengo1-0Atlético-MG
- Flamengo0-0Atlético-MG
- Atlético-MG2-4Flamengo
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Flamengo – Atlético-MG?
Our model gives 1 · Flamengo a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Flamengo win 67 %, draw 21 %, Atlético-MG win 12 %.
What is the most likely score for Flamengo – Atlético-MG?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.