América Mineiro
Cuiabá
América Mineiro – Cuiabá
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 0-113 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.98 – 1.20
- Over 2.5 goals
- 37 %
- Both teams to score
- 44 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Cuiabá away from home (40 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.98 goals for América Mineiro and 1.20 for Cuiabá. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 46 %. Over their last five matches, América Mineiro took 3 points and Cuiabá 4 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for América Mineiro, 2 draws, 3 wins for Cuiabá. Over 2.5 goals: 37 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América Mineiro | 3.40 | 27 % | +0.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +6.8 % |
| 2Cuiabá | 2.00 | 46 % | -20.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
América Mineiro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Cuiabá
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- América Mineiro
- 2 draws
- 3 wins
- Cuiabá
- Cuiabá1-0América Mineiro
- América Mineiro1-1Cuiabá
- Cuiabá3-1América Mineiro
- Cuiabá2-2América Mineiro
- Cuiabá2-1América Mineiro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América Mineiro – Cuiabá?
Our model gives 2 · Cuiabá a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América Mineiro win 29 %, draw 31 %, Cuiabá win 40 %.
What is the most likely score for América Mineiro – Cuiabá?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.