Coritiba
Grêmio
Coritiba – Grêmio
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.49 – 1.19
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 54 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Coritiba at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.49 goals for Coritiba and 1.19 for Grêmio. Bookmakers say the same thing: 46 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Coritiba took 2 points and Grêmio 3 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Coritiba, 1 draw, 3 wins for Grêmio. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Coritiba | 2.05 | 46 % | -9.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -0.3 % |
| 2Grêmio | 3.40 | 28 % | -7.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Coritiba
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Grêmio
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Coritiba
- 1 draw
- 3 wins
- Grêmio
- Grêmio1-0Coritiba
- Coritiba1-2Grêmio
- Coritiba1-1Grêmio
- Grêmio2-1Coritiba
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Coritiba – Grêmio?
Our model gives 1 · Coritiba a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Coritiba win 44 %, draw 28 %, Grêmio win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Coritiba – Grêmio?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.