Tijuana
Santos
Tijuana – Santos
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 06:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 38 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.39 – 1.35
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Tijuana at home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.39 goals for Tijuana and 1.35 for Santos. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 47 %. Over their last five matches, Tijuana took 4 points and Santos 13 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Tijuana, 1 draw, 2 wins for Santos. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tijuana | 2.00 | 47 % | -24.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 25 % | +6.0 % |
| 2Santos | 3.40 | 28 % | +14.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Tijuana
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Santos
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 2 wins
- Tijuana
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Santos
- Tijuana1-2Santos
- Santos1-0Tijuana
- Santos0-4Tijuana
- Tijuana3-1Santos
- Tijuana2-2Santos
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Tijuana – Santos?
Our model gives 1 · Tijuana a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tijuana win 38 %, draw 28 %, Santos win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Tijuana – Santos?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.