Sevilla
Osasuna
Sevilla – Osasuna
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.58 – 1.09
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Sevilla at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.58 goals for Sevilla and 1.09 for Osasuna. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sevilla took 7 points and Osasuna 4 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sevilla, 2 draws, 2 wins for Osasuna. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sevilla | 1.90 | 50 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.45 | 27 % | +4.1 % |
| 2Osasuna | 4.20 | 23 % | +2.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sevilla
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Osasuna
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sevilla
- 2 draws
- 2 wins
- Osasuna
- Osasuna2-1Sevilla
- Sevilla1-0Osasuna
- Osasuna1-0Sevilla
- Sevilla1-1Osasuna
- Sevilla1-1Osasuna
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Sevilla – Osasuna?
Our model gives 1 · Sevilla a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sevilla win 45 %, draw 30 %, Osasuna win 24 %.
What is the most likely score for Sevilla – Osasuna?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.