Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v3-20261018-0954, Oct 25, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 2-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.64 – 0.89
- Over 2.5 goals
- 68 %
- Both teams to score
- 55 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Paris Saint-Germain at home (74 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.64 goals for Paris Saint-Germain and 0.89 for Lyon. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 67 %. Over their last five matches, Paris Saint-Germain took 15 points and Lyon 9 points. In recent meetings: 4 wins for Paris Saint-Germain, 0 draws, 1 win for Lyon. Over 2.5 goals: 68 %. Both teams to score: 55 %.
What the market says
Average of 2 bookmakers, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Paris Saint-Germain | 1.41 | 67 % | +4.3 % |
| XDraw | 5.38 | 18 % | -13.0 % |
| 2Lyon | 6.25 | 15 % | -38.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Paris Saint-Germain
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Lyon
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 4 wins
- Paris Saint-Germain
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Lyon
- Paris Saint-Germain1-2Lyon
- Lyon2-3Paris Saint-Germain
- Lyon2-3Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain3-1Lyon
- Lyon1-2Paris Saint-Germain
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon?
Our model gives 1 · Paris Saint-Germain a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Paris Saint-Germain win 74 %, draw 16 %, Lyon win 10 %.
What is the most likely score for Paris Saint-Germain – Lyon?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.